Bitcoin rebound appears a ‘relief rally,’ not the start of a new bullish cycle, says CryptoQuant

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Bitcoin’s rebound above $73,000 earlier Thursday may appear encouraging, but onchain data suggests it is more likely a short-term "relief rally" rather than the start of a new bullish cycle, according to CryptoQuant.

"Bitcoin is still inside a bear market, despite the recent price rally," Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said in a report on Thursday. "Fundamental and technical indicators still point to a bear market environment As such, the current rally is best interpreted as a relief rally inside the ongoing bear market."

The bitcoin price rallied as the cryptocurrency's apparent spot demand contraction improved significantly, narrowing from around -136,000 BTC at the start of 2026 to about -25,000 BTC, suggesting selling pressure has eased since early February, Moreno said.

At the same time, demand from U.S. investors has strengthened. The Coinbase bitcoin premium, a metric that tracks buying activity from U.S.-based traders, shifted from "deeply negative" earlier in February to its "most positive" level since October, signaling spot demand switched from contraction to growth.

Selling pressure from traders and long-term holders has also declined, helping support the recent rebound. Moreno noted that bitcoin traders’ unrealized losses recently reached levels last seen in July 2022, a point that historically tends to reduce marginal selling because traders are less inclined to exit positions when losses are already large.

Long-term holder selling has also slowed sharply, with the 30-day selling pace dropping from roughly 904,000 BTC on Nov. 26 to around 276,000 BTC today, the lowest level since June 2025.

Despite the rebound, Moreno said the broader market environment still reflects a bearish regime. The firm’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index remains at 10 out of 100, indicating that the fundamental and technical indicators typically associated with a bullish cycle have not yet recovered.

If bitcoin continues to move higher, the next key resistance levels could appear near $79,000 and $90,000, Moreno said. The first level corresponds to the lower band of the traders’ onchain realized price, which historically acts as resistance during bear markets, while the second level marks the broader traders’ realized price that previously capped a rally earlier this year.

"Indeed, this band acted as resistance in mid-January, after Bitcoin rallied from $80,000 to $98,000," Moreno said.

Bitcoin is currently trading at around $71,160, down nearly 3% over the past 24 hours, according to The Block's BTC price page.

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